With China’s vigorous socioeconomic development, risk management and decision support for social capital partners in PPP projects have garnered increased attention. This paper adopts fuzzy mathematics as a method for identifying risks in PPP project management, providing an overall assessment of project risk management. Building upon this, it integrates the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to jointly evaluate project management risks under the PPP model. A risk hierarchy structure is established, a set of risk factor evaluations is determined, the probability distribution of secondary indicator risks is calculated, and the overall risk management evaluation results for the project are generated. The full lifecycle management process of the R County infrastructure PPP project received an overall risk score of 3.2, indicating a relatively high level of risk significance. Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) were selected as evaluation indicators for the decision support model to assess the financial sensitivity of R County’s PPP project. Under an adverse scenario where construction costs increased by 10% while benefits remained unchanged, the net present value reached 165,325 million yuan, demonstrating the project’s continued profitability. This indicates that the project possesses a certain degree of risk resistance during its construction phase.
