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Ingegneria Sismica

Ingegneria Sismica

Multi-scale Dual Transformer based Multi long-term Time Series Prediction and Dynamic Correction Method for Traffic Flow (MSD-Transformer)

Author(s): Limi Chen1,2, Zhihao Jiang1,2, Jing Yang1
1Hainan Vocational University of Science and Technology, Haikou 571126, China
2Institute for Mathematical Research, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Serdang 43400, Malaysia
Chen, Limi., Jiang, Zhihao., and Yang, Jing. “Multi-scale Dual Transformer based Multi long-term Time Series Prediction and Dynamic Correction Method for Traffic Flow (MSD-Transformer).” Ingegneria Sismica Volume 43 Issue 3: 1-18, doi:10.65102/is20261301.

Abstract

In response to the problem of congestion delay dependence in existing traffic flow prediction models, a dynamic correction method for multi-dimensional long-term time series prediction of traffic flow (MSD-Transformer) integrating multi-scale dual Transformers is proposed. Firstly, a multi-scale feature extraction network is constructed using weight sharing Swin Tiny, which hierarchically mines multi-dimensional traffic temporal features such as short-term fluctuations, daily cycles, and weekly cycles. A bidirectional feature pyramid BiFPN is introduced to build a bidirectional feature fusion pathway, and an adaptive weighting mechanism is used to achieve complementary interaction between high and low resolution features; Secondly, design a spatial residual attention module that combines layered residual attention scores to synchronize sequence self-attention and cross sequence cross attention modeling, accurately characterizing the differential congestion propagation delay of main and branch roads; Thirdly, based on the dual Transformer architecture, a multi-scale spatiotemporal encoding and decoding unit is built, and the model training optimization is completed by combining weighted cross entropy and focus loss fusion function. The experimental results show that compared with mainstream baseline models such as STGCN, DCRNN, and STTN, the proposed model significantly reduces MAE and RMSE indicators in the 15-60 minute full time prediction task; Experimental validation of multi-scale feature extraction network BiFPN, The three major modules of spatial residual attention all have irreplaceable gains. Research has shown that the proposed method can finely model traffic spatiotemporal delays and non-stationary sudden changes in flow, effectively alleviating the performance degradation of long-term time series prediction and providing precise support for dynamic flow regulation of urban road networks.

Keywords
Traffic flow prediction; Multi-scale features; Dual Transformer; Bidirectional feature pyramid; Spatial residual attention; Spatiotemporal dependency modeling

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Zhihao Jiang1,2, Limi Chen1,2, Jing Yang1
1Hainan Vocational University of Science and Technology, Haikou 571126, China
2Institute for Mathematical Research, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Serdang 43400, Malaysia
Hui Yuan1, Minjie Chai2, Siqing Xu1, Jinsong Li1, Jinwan Zheng1
1Electric Power Research Institute, State Grid Shanxi Electric Power Co., Ltd., Taiyuan, 030001, Shanxi, China
2Jincheng Power Supply Branch, State Grid Shanxi Electric Power Co., Ltd., Jincheng, 048000, Shanxi, China
Yanhan Zhu1,2
1China Academy of Cultural Heritage, Chaoyang District, 100029, Beijing, China
2Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Xicheng District, 100044, Beijing, China
Ken Wang1, Jinhan Shu2, Kan Yuan1
1School of Digital Media, Shenzhen Polytechnic University, Shenzhen 518055, Guangdong, China
2Postdoctoral Mobile Station of Journalism and communication, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, Shanghai, China
Jingze Sun1
1School of Fine Arts, Anqing Normal University, Anqing 246000, Anhui, China