According to Beijing’s energy demand and carbon emissions data, the LEAP model is used to forecast Beijing’s energy demand and carbon emissions from 2020 to 2060. Build baseline scenarios, low-carbon scenarios, and enhanced low-carbon scenarios based on the magnitude of the measures. According to the prediction results, energy flow map and carbon flow map, the results show that the energy demand is not at its peak under the baseline scenario, reaching 120.5Mt in 2060, and carbon emissions reach 221.8Mt in 2052. Under the low-carbon scenario, energy demand first increases and then stabilizes, reaching 97.1Mt in 2060 and 184.3Mt in 2038, respectively. Under the enhanced low-carbon scenario, energy demand peaked at 87.14Mt in 2057 and carbon emissions peaked at 170.3Mt in 2029. Of the three scenarios, enhanced low-carbon scenarios are most likely to achieve the “two-carbon” goal. In the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the two measures of improving the energy efficiency of the tertiary industry and industrial energy efficiency contributed the most to the energy saving, contributing 43.7% and 33.2% respectively. Using clean energy and increasing the green electricity proportion measures contributed the most to the emission reduction, the contribution rate reached 30.9% and 26.3% respectively.
