Based on provincial panel data from 2010 to 2022, this paper examines the mechanisms and heterogeneous effects of new urbanization on China’s agricultural economic resilience. The findings are as follows: (1) New urbanization significantly enhances resilience, with a stronger effect in major grain-producing areas. (2) This effect is partially mediated by land transfer, technological progress, and human capital, with human capital being the most influential channel. (3) Agricultural agglomeration has a single-threshold effect; the promoting effect of urbanization is greater where agglomeration is low. (4) The effect demonstrates stage heterogeneity and increasing marginal returns. (5) Considerable potential exists for improving the coupled coordination between the two systems, with notable regional variations. The study concludes that policy interventions must be adapted to local circumstances.fully leverage regional advantages, build a regional coordinated development supply system, and promote the dynamic coupling of common prosperity and high-quality development.
