Outline

Ingegneria Sismica

Ingegneria Sismica

FLUS method-based simulation of the effectiveness of Land utilization transformation on carbon pool dynamics under various future climatic conditions

Author(s): Zhuoran Li1, Liwei Zhou1, Yue Hu1, Xixi Xu1, Shuhong Wu1
1School of Ecology and Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, 100083, China
Li, Zhuoran . et al “FLUS method-based simulation of the effectiveness of Land utilization transformation on carbon pool dynamics under various future climatic conditions.” Ingegneria Sismica Volume 43 Issue 3: 1-16, doi:10.65102/is20261156.

Abstract

Land utilization transformation is a significant factor affecting regional carbon pool. As a representative city in the northern part of the province of Henan, Anyang City is facing the double pressure of urban development and ecological environment protection, and it is of vital importance to research the implications of Land utilization transformation on carbon pool for the sustainable development of the region. In this research, the implications of Land utilization transformation on carbon pool dynamics under various future climatic conditions in Anyang City were investigated on the basis of the FLUS method and the InVEST method. Three kinds of conditions of natural growth, eco-environmental conservation and arable land resource conservation were established to model and forecast the Land utilization transformation and carbon pool in 2030, taking the land utilization data between 2010 and 2020, fifteen driving factors are introduced as input indicators. The findings showed that the Kappa statistic of the FLUS method was 0.8152 and the OA accuracy was 0.8914, which suggested that the model simulation effect was satisfactory; in terms of Land utilization transformation, the intensity of Land utilization transformation in diverse conditions during 2020-2030 was in the following order: cultivated land conservation scenario > urban sprawl scenario > eco-environmental conservation scenario > natural growth scenario; in terms of carbon pool change, the land utilization transformation in 2010 was in the following order: cultivated land conservation scenario > urban sprawl scenario > eco-environmental conservation scenario > natural growth scenario. In terms of carbon pool dynamics, carbon pool exhibits an upward trend from 2010 to 2020, from 11.42 to 11.51. Among the future conditions, the eco-environmental conservation scenario shows the most significant increase in carbon pool, with the forest carbon pool increasing by 16.75% to 15,642.38 t and the grassland carbon pool increasing by 2.63% to 97,536.61 t. The research indicates that scientific planning of the land utilization structure and expanding forest coverage and grassland will have a beneficial impact on the enhancement of regional carbon pool and the promotion of ecological sustainable development.

Keywords
Land utilization transformation; FLUS method; Carbon pool; Eco-environmental conservation; Scenario simulation; InVEST method

Related Articles

Liqin Zheng1, Dongrui Qing2, Yan Zhang1
1School of Mathematics and Statistics, Shaan Xi Xue Qian Normal University Xi’an 710100, P.R.China
2School of Marxism, Xi’an University of Finance and Economics Xi’an 710100, P.R.China
Yanan Gao1, Aiqun Peng2, Nina Ma2
1Management School of Anhui Business and Technology College Hefei 230000, Anhui, China
2Economics and Trade School of Anhui Business and Technology College Hefei 230000, Anhui, China
Ya’ning Liu1, Ping Ma1
1School of Teacher Education, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang, 832000, China
Yuhui Li1, Zhongliang Gong1
1College of Mechanical and Intelligent Manufacturing, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha, Hunan, 410004, China
Hanqing Hu1, Chengjin Liu1, Tianmu Tian1
1School of Management Science and Engineering, Beijing Information Science & Technology University, Beijing 100192