Outline

Ingegneria Sismica

Ingegneria Sismica

Explore driving factors of vacant housing in England: taking cases of growing and shrinking urban areas

Author(s): Ruidan Sun1
1The Faculty of Humanities, the University of Manchester, Oxford Rd M13 9PL, Manchester, UK
Sun, Ruidan. “Explore driving factors of vacant housing in England: taking cases of growing and shrinking urban areas.” Ingegneria Sismica Volume 43 Issue 3: 1-17, doi:10.65102/is20261176.

Abstract

This article aims to analyze the potential determinants of residential vacancy rates in different urban environments in England, using Blackpool (representative of declining cities) and Liverpool (growth city model) as examples for comparative research. This article uses a multiple linear regression model to conduct correlation analysis on population, socio-economic, housing market, and built environment factors, and evaluates whether the spatial distribution of vacant housing exhibits clustering or dispersion patterns using global and local autocorrelation analysis. Research has found that the increase in the number of small households is negatively correlated with housing vacancy rates, but only significantly in shrinking cities such as Blackpool. Among socio-economic factors, employment in the tertiary industry is only related to job vacancies in declining cities, while unemployment becomes a common catalyst. The impact of median housing prices on vacancy rates in these two types of cities can be ignored. From the perspective of urban form, the density of commercial facilities is the only building environment factor related to vacancy rate, but its impact varies depending on the urban environment. The increase in the number of small households, unemployment rate, employment in the tertiary industry, and density of commercial facilities are key factors affecting residential vacancy rates. To alleviate the problem of vacant housing, policy makers should ensure that housing supply is consistent with changes in population structure, cultivate employment capacity through policies that support relevant industries, especially the tertiary industry, and provide facilities based on the needs of local residents, emphasizing quality rather than quantity.

Keywords
British society; Vacant housing; Driving factors; Correlation analysis; Economic growth; Vacancy rate

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