The purpose of the present research was to find out early prognostic elements for clinical remission in patients who have chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related liver illness receiving treatment by pegylated interferon-α-2b (Peg-IFN-α-2b) and to establish a clinical prediction model. We have conducted a retrospective cohort research investigation. During the time period from May 2024 to January 2026, 91 patients that have chronic HBV infection which satisfied the inclusion and exclusion criteria were one after another recruited from the outpatient clinic of the Department of Infectious Diseases which is at Suining Central Hospital. We divided the patients into two groups according to whether HBsAg clearance was obtained in the 48 weeks of the treatment course. The group which obtained successful treatment is called the effective group (n=38), hence the group which did not obtain successful treatment is the ineffective group (n=53). The measurement of virus carrying capacity, liver function situation, and immune label things was carried out before the treatment was done, and at 12, 24, 48 weeks after the treatment. We used univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses to carry out screening for independent predictor variables and thus construct a prediction model. The forecast ability of this model has been evaluated by making use of a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Between the group with effective curative effect and the group with ineffective curative effect, the baseline log10HBsAg levels have a notable difference (P<0.001). When the treatment reaches the 24-week time point, both the decreasing degree of HBsAg (Δlog10HBsAg) (P<0.001) and the number of CD4+ T cells (P=0.04) in the effective group, they are obviously higher than the corresponding values in the ineffective group. Multivariate statistical analysis has indicated that Δlog10HBsAg (OR=5.506, 95%CI 2.775 – 10.926, P<0.001) and the quantity of CD4+ T cells at 24 weeks (OR=1.008, 95%CI 1.001 – 1.015, P=0.018) therefore are independent prediction factors. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the combined model for predicting clinical cure was 0.935, and this was higher than that of any individual indicator. Conclusion: A rapid decline in HBsAg early after starting treatment and an elevated count of CD4+ T cells at 24 weeks can be predicted as indicators of clinical cure for patients with chronic HBV infection treated with Peg-IFN -2b. The constructed combined prediction model has good discrimination and clinical utility.
