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Ingegneria Sismica

Ingegneria Sismica

MOE-STSGKAN for electric vehicle charging demand forecasting based on hierarchical clustering

Author(s): Meiying Yang1,2, Fang Wang1, Yajing Zhang1, Cheng Gong1,2, Hao Ma1,2, Yi Li3, Xinzhi Lin3, Zhao Zhang3
1State Grid Beijing Electric Power Company Electric Power Science Research Institute, Beijing, 100031, China.
2Beijing Dingcheng Hong’an Technology Development Co. Ltd, Beijing, 100075, China.
3Beijing Jingyibeifang Instrument Co., Ltd,BeiJing, 102600,China
Yang, Meiying . et al “MOE-STSGKAN for electric vehicle charging demand forecasting based on hierarchical clustering.” Ingegneria Sismica Volume 43 Issue 2: 1-15, doi:10.65102/is2026835.

Abstract

With the deepening global focus on sustainable development and carbon emission reduction, electric vehicles (EVs) have become a key component of clean energy transportation. To address the challenges of computational inefficiency in largescale node scenarios and the difficulty of synchronous spatiotemporal feature extraction in traditional graph neural networks, this paper proposes a Mixture-ofExperts Spatiotemporal Synchronous Graph Kolmogorov-Arnold Network based on hierarchical clustering. First, the global charging pile network is partitioned into 4 spatiotemporally correlated subgraphs using an agglomerative hierarchical clustering algorithm, and temporal patching strategy is employed for feature reconstruction. Second, a Spatiotemporal Synchronous Graph KolmogorovArnold Network is designed as expert models, where Fourier coefficients replace traditional spline functions to achieve frequency-domain fusion of spatiotemporal features. Finally, a gating network integrates expert outputs through transfer learning. Validation on real-world data from 24,761 charging piles in 247 Shenzhen districts demonstrates: For 15/30/45-minute prediction tasks, the proposed model achieves MAEs of 1.63/3.02/3.69, outperforming state-of-the-art baseline PAG by 4.7%/4.4%/7.3% respectively. The training time is reduced to 20.43 minutes. Experimental results confirm the method effectively balances prediction accuracy and computational efficiency in large-scale charging infrastructure scenarios.

Keywords
Electric vehicles; Predicting charging demands; Hierarchical clustering; Graph Kolmogorov-Arnold network; Mixture expert models

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