To determine the impact of daily reanalyses data and real-time multivariate Madden-Julian Oscillation (RMM) indices from 1985 to 2025 on surface temperatures across Shanxi Province using these datasets. Analysis of the phase-based composite, seasonal stratification, anomaly diagnosis, and 500 hPa teleconnection. The investigation reveals that there are annual variations and phase changes in MJO’s influence upon Temperature Distributions of Shanxi Region. During winter, the greatest adjustment occurs; phases 3 to 4 have a province-wide cold anomaly of around −0.8 K, and phases 6 to 8 show warming but their high-point temperature is at about 0.6 K. Spring has lower responsiveness; there are primarily warm anomalies during periods 2-3, and cold ones occur between periods 4-6. Because the MJO signal is dominated by the East Asian summer monsoon background and local convective processes during the summer season, there is relatively weak coherence modulated. In autumn, the response to temperature changes increases again; The cold anomaly at this time is about -0.7K, and the local warm anomaly has reached up to 1.0K, which exceeds the winter warm peak. Physically, MJO-related tropical convection activity can cause Shanxi to be affected through the propagation of extratropical Rossby waves and their associated Eurasia-Pacifi-canteleconnections. Positive 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies over northern China favor warm advection and suppressed cold-air activity, while negative height anomalies favor trough control and cold advection. These results show that the MJO cycle can be used as a good sub-Seasonal predictor of cold-warm phenomena in Shanxi Province during this period every year.
