Outline

Ingegneria Sismica

Ingegneria Sismica

Impact of Earthquake Insurance on Regional Infrastructure Investment Decisions and Economic Resilience.

Author(s): Jingwen Wu1
1School of Business, Minnan Normal University, Zhangzhou 363000, Fujian, China
Wu, Jingwen. “Impact of Earthquake Insurance on Regional Infrastructure Investment Decisions and Economic Resilience..” Ingegneria Sismica Volume 43 Issue 2: 1-23, doi:10.65102/is2026900.

Abstract

EI-RIDE is proposed in this paper as an Earthquake Insurance-driven Regional Infrastructure Investment Decision and Economic Resilience Assessment Framework, which addresses the problem that previous studies have seldom integrated insurance mechanisms into infrastructure investment optimisation and economic resilience quantification. The three innovations of EI-RIDE are as follows: A multi-layer seismic risk assessment and insurance pricing model (MSRA-IPM) that dynamically links regional seismic hazards, infrastructure vulnerabilities and insurance coverage features; a game-theoretic infrastructure investment decision model (GTIDM) based on Stackelberg game theory, which considers the strategic interactions among governments, insurers and infrastructure investors under earthquake insurance incentives; and a dynamic economic resilience quantification index (DERQI) that integrates input-output analysis and computable general equilibrium modelling to evaluate the economic resilience of an area in terms of pre-disaster preparation, disaster absorption and post-disaster recovery. Experiments on multi-regional empirical datasets have shown that it is feasible to increase the optimal level of infrastructure investment by 18.6%, reduce expected economic losses by 31.2%, and improve the Economic Resilience Index (ERI) by 24.5% in the presence of earthquake insurance schemes compared with the baseline scenario without insurance.

Keywords
earthquake insurance; infrastructure investment; economic resilience; seismic risk assessment; game theory; computable general equilibrium; insurance pricing

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